Football Thursday

Each week this fall, the Dave's World Wiseguys will predict winners in every NFL game and a handful of key college football matchups (which is why we're starting today, as college action kicks off on Thursday) and tell you why.

Who is this illustrious crew? A look at our panelists:

Shawn O'Neal. Presently the senior editor for the Lindy's College Basketball and Football Annual magazines. Formerly college hoops editor for Sportsline.com. Remembered at Sportsline for once proclaiming "The Dallas Burn … that sounds like a venereal disease."

Dave Scott. Freelance writer and author of Scott's Shots (linked on the left), a weekly compendium of goings-on in the New England sports media industry. General troublemaker.

Chris Forsberg. Sportswriter for the Fitchburg (MA) Sentinel and freelancer for anyone whose checks don't bounce. A lottery pick waiting in the green room.

And of course, yours truly. Any number of adjectives would fit here.

Starting next week, we'll also have rotating weekly guest panelists on board.

Off to the races ...

NFL 2005 Predictions

None of this "who will win the AFC South/NFC North" etc. stuff. Panelists were asked three pertinent questions.

1. Who will be the surprise team of 2005?

SO'N: Detroit. This team has too damn much offensive talent not to figure it out soon. Joey Harrington hasn't done it yet, but he's a legitimate good guy and the fact that Tony Siragusa doesn't like him makes me love him. He's simply not nearly as bad as everybody has made him out to be. He gets knocked because he's an intellectual in a league that values stupidity: see Siragusa, Bradshaw, Irvin, et al. The Lions got better on the offensive front and can't help but be better on defense. They're also in a division with no clear big dog as Green Bay simply isn't a team to fear in any real way.

Dave S.: Cleveland. We like defense. We like Belichick guys. We like Romeo Crennel. And if they double last year's win output (4), they will be on the verge of the playoffs.

Forsberg: Detroit. They might lose 10 games this season, but eventually they're going to turn the corner (with or without Harrington calling the signals). Even Harrington shouldn't mess things up with an
offense loaded with so much talent. The Lions start with
a rough opening stretch, but have the potential to catch fire and
make the playoffs in a soft NFC. I mean, this is the same NFC where
people are excited about the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals!?

Dave D.: Houston. OK, the Texans have done nothing in the preseason to justify this pick, but this is a team with a decent defense that has gone from one win to four to seven in the past three seasons. They added a run game last year; if David Carr can put it together, Houston will sneak into a wild-card spot.

2. Who will win the Dave's World Peyton Manning Award for the player who will get pumped up the most in the media without ever winning anything big:

SO'N: J.P. Losman, Buffalo. I'm not a big Peyton Manning guy, but how is this award not named after Terrell Owens? As for Losman, I admit that this pick could make me look stupid. I know this because every time a scout finishes speaking of him they immediately light a cigarette. Ever since he was drafted everybody has talked about the guy in reverent tones … most notably Losman himself. He could be great, but I'm just looking forward to the guy sinking or swimming so the talk can be justified or everybody can shut the hell up.

Dave S.: Terrell Owens, Philadelphia. Hands down, already awarded to Terrell Owens. The overkill of pre-season is enough to put him ahead as the front runner for the next three years as well. The only thing that can potentially compare would be if the Moss Man sparks a fatty on the sideline.

Forsberg: Trent Green, Kansas City. Green is already a poor man's version of Manning. He's got an elite running back to keep opposing defenses honest and a serviceable set of receivers. His numbers for 2004 weren't half-bad, either. Green completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 4,591 yards with 27 touchdowns and 17 INT. This despite throwing zero touchdowns in four of his team's first 12 games of the season, then throwing 12 TD passes over the final five contests (four wins and a one-touchdown loss at San Diego to close out the year). Alas, you remember that K.C. had the No. 31 defense (sound familiar, Indy?) and the Chiefs
never allowed fewer than 17 points, so Green was typically forced to
heave the ball around as the Chiefs played catch-up.

Dave D.: Peyton Manning. OK, based on the feedback from the rest of the panel, I guess I should have named this the Terrell Owens Award. But, you know what? It's my blog, and I just ignored all the T.O. talk all summer. Now, few things in football get under my skin more than the non-stop "THIS IS PEYTON MANNING'S YEAR!!!! (No, really, we mean it this time!!!!) hype on all the TV shows. It will happen again ... and will finish the same way, with Peyton spitting the bit when it is all on the line. So the award stays the Peyton Manning Award, and my winner is ... Peyton Manning.

3. Who wins and who loses the Super Bowl, and why?

Forsberg: Baltimore Ravens over Minnesota. Forget the obvious losses on the sidelines and at linebacker, the Patriots loaded up on depth this season and it's hard to imagine them taking much of a step back. Remember, this team won a Super Bowl with wide receiver Troy Brown at nickel corner. Now they've got Duane Starks, a former Pro Bowler to fill that spot. Think about it.

But the Pats are too easy of a pick, so we envision the Ravens
toppling the Vikings in a very purple Super Bowl. The Ravens, you
ask? Jamal Lewis spent his summer vacation confined in a halfway
house lifting weights for approximately 12 hours a day. This is the
same guy who, before being incarcerated, rushed for 2,066 yards and
14 TDs in 2003. I'd be surprised if Kyle Boller throws a single pass
this season.

Dave S.: Oakland over Detroit. The Raiders win the Super Bowl, running off 15 straight in the regular season and three in the post-season, after next Thursday night's Foxboro loss in front of Al, John and Carlos Santana.

"Oye Como Va" becomes the Raiders? theme song after the loss and they begin incorporating that voodoo you do into each game plan and roll form there. Randy Moss scores four touchdowns in a 42-10 win over hometown fave, Detroit in the big one, Super Bowl XL.

(Post-script: With Disney having abandoned the "I'm Going to Disney post-game spot, the Jamaican Board of Tourism fills the void and prompts Moss to say "I'm going to Jamaica. Mon." What, I can't make two pot jokes in one entry? I'm trying to get a gig with High Times.)

SO'N: New England over Dallas. Nobody has ever called me boring. I'd sooner kiss Mike Holmgren on the lips than pick Duke or North Carolina to win the NCAA Tournament. It takes no thought and nobody gets to brag that they picked Duke to win it all. Nobody has ever called me knowledgeable, either. What I know about the NFL can fit into Onterrio Smith's whizzinator and I'm betting the other guys in this thing can actually pronounce Chike Okeafor. Thus, I'll play it safe and pick the Pats. This organization has figured it out. They've taken the rule that gave us the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens, turned it inside-out and now exist on a different plane than everybody else. Their continuity, cool and experience make all the difference. It's not a fun pick, but it's the right one.

I'll always root for the best story and, boy would it be fun to see a Pats-Pokes Super Bowl. First off, give me two weeks of pre-game Parcells quotes and I'm a happy guy. But Parcells and my man Drew Bledsoe standing in the way of a Patriots three-peat? That's a ride I want to take.

Dave D.: Carolina over New England. The 12 people who still follow hockey might recall the 1986 Smythe Division Finals between Edmonton and Calgary. Edmonton was the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions; Calgary was constantly nipping at the Oilers' heels. The Flames finally caught them in 1986 winning Game 7 by a goal. It didn't mean Edmonton was through by a longshot -- the Oilers rebounded and won three more Cups before their run was done.

I see the Patriots as being similar to Edmonton. The Panthers gave the Pats the game of their lives in Houston, and last year were thrown off with a ton of injuries before rallying big in the second half of the season. Pats-Panthers II will be every bit the slugfest as the first, but the Panthers will come out on top this time. But that doesn't mean New England's day is done.

Week One College Picks
(winners in bold)

Boise State at Georgia, Saturday
SO'N: Boise State shares a marketing slogan with ESPN U -- Never Graduate. That's not a dig at coach Dan Hawkins or his program. The guy's no Bob Huggins. He's one of the nation's brightest coaching minds and seems to run an ethical program. It's just that the admissions standards at BSU are a touch less stringent than that of the Columbia House Music Club.

But more to the point, many people are picking this game as an upset special in the first week of the college season. Those people should quit sniffing airplane glue.

Hawkins has built Boise State into a remarkable success story, but there is no reason to expect a win in Athens. Their remarkable four-year run of 45-5 has been built largely against your momma and that kid in your kindergarten class who ate paste. Four wins against Idaho. Four wins against Tulsa. Four wins against San Jose State. Four wins against Nevada-Casino. Meanwhile, seven games against BCS-conference teams have resulted in a 2-5 record, the wins coming against Oregon State and Iowa State, and both of those were on the blue turf in Boise, where the crowd is almost literally on the field.

The Broncos are not a bad team, they're just not good enough to win at Georgia. The Dawgs traditionally get off to slow starts, so this one will be close at halftime -- 17-7, perhaps. The Bulldogs are too deep, too physical and too good for the Broncos and will eventually pull away and win with ease.

Boston College at Brigham Young, Saturday
Forsberg: Every time I hear the name of Boston College quarterback Quinton Porter it reminds me of former Boston Globe intern named Quentin Bowler. Quentin was this gravelly-voiced soft talker from Atlanta who looked a bit like singer Damien Rice and played a perpetual game of devil's advocate. I don't think Quentin ever started a sentence without saying, "Nah man," before putting you and your opinion in its place.

For instance, I would pick BC to win this game, riding the back of
local product L.V. Whitworth, but then Quentin would say, "Nah man, never bet against a bunch of college Mormons. They're all angry from that no alcohol, no cigarettes, no sex thing."

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, Saturday
Dave D.: You know, the logical part of my brain understands that Pittsburgh came on strong last year and snuck off the Big East's BCS berth; that the Panthers bring a bunch of talent back from that team; that Notre Dame was basically falling apart; and that Charlie Weis was getting ready for a Super Bowl during a key recruiting period.

Still, though … Charlie Weis vs. Dave Wannstedt. C'mon. Anyone who has seen a typical Pats-Dolphins game the past several years knows how this one turns out.

Miami at Florida State, Monday
Dave S.: College football kicks off in earnest with its own, Adam Sandler-less remake of "The Longest Yard." Here, for a Labor Day Monday night audience, the Cons play the Cons and all that goodwill showered throughout the day on the Jerry Lewis Telethon will be forgotten as quickly as you can say Tomahawk Chop.

Call us sentimental -- and while you're at it, call us a cab for each night of the holiday weekend -- but we're going with the great-great-grandfatherly Coach Bowden over the grandfatherly Coach Coker.